For the better part of fifteen years, the safety trade did not require much thought. The Fed printed enough money and bought enough paper that Treasury’s risk-free rating leaked outward into agency debt, into investment-grade corporates, into whole categories of assets that had no business

Nvidia reports Wednesday after the close, and the numbers going in are about as settled as Wall Street numbers get. The company guided to $91 billion in revenue, plus or minus 2 percent. Forty analysts have landed on a consensus of $91.85 billion in revenue

Every time money moves out of the AI trade for a week, someone reaches for the same word: risk-off. It is the wrong word, and this month is a clean example of why. XLB is up 4.96%, XLE is up 8.25%, XLV is up 7.63%. On its face that looks like

Six years on, the bond market still hasn’t climbed out of the hole it dug in 2020. The iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF hit its all-time high close of $99.96 back on August 4, 2020. As of last Thursday it sat at $97.49, meaning

Earnings season arrived with expectations already running high. Nobody has a rational reason to be disappointed or even anxious. If anything, targets are moving even higher as key companies raise their outlook: operations are not just “resilient,” they’re flirting with all-time records and getting even

For much of the past decade, investors became accustomed to a Federal Reserve that did more than set interest rates. It managed expectations. Forward guidance became part of the market’s operating system, and every speech, projection, and press conference became another signal investors used to