Earnings season arrived with expectations already running high. Nobody has a rational reason to be disappointed or even anxious. If anything, targets are moving even higher as key companies raise their outlook: operations are not just “resilient,” they’re flirting with all-time records and getting even better.
Wall Street got exactly what it wanted and even a little bit more. Heading into the quarter, analysts were forecasting 23.2% year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500. Instead of the typical downward revisions that accompany most earnings seasons, estimates increased by 3.4% from March 31 through June 30, the largest quarterly increase since 2021.
Management teams were similarly confident. Of the 111 S&P 500 companies that issued earnings guidance before reporting, 63 offered positive guidance and 48 offered negative guidance. The percentage of companies issuing positive guidance reached 57%, the highest level since the third quarter of 2021.
And it’s not just the Magnificent 7, although we’ll talk about them soon. With more than half of the S&P 500 reporting, 86% of companies have exceeded earnings expectations and 77% have exceeded revenue expectations. The blended earnings growth rate for the index has risen to 47.4%, more than double the estimate heading into the season. If that pace holds, it would represent the strongest earnings growth since the second quarter of 2021, when, as you recall, the year-over-year base was set apocalyptically low.
The strength has also been broader than the market narrative suggests. While the Magnificent 7 remain exceptional as a group, with expected earnings growth of 31.1% compared with 22.8% for the remaining 493 companies in the S&P 500, four of the five largest contributors to second-quarter earnings growth are outside that group: Micron Technology, Chevron, Exxon Mobil and Broadcom.
Take that in. Sure, Alphabet and Amazon both reported unusually large GAAP earnings gains tied to investment-related items. But excluding those two companies, the S&P 500 would still be reporting approximately 28.8% earnings growth. That would be a bona fide boom in just about any other season.
Profitability tells a similar story. The blended net profit margin for the S&P 500 currently stands at 15.7%, which would represent the highest level since FactSet began tracking the metric in 2009. Even after adjusting for Alphabet’s contribution, margins remain historically elevated.
So why can’t Wall Street accept that sometimes wishes actually come true? The market has spent the past year debating whether artificial intelligence would justify the extraordinary investment surrounding it. This season, we started to see tangible results.
Demand for advanced data infrastructure is no longer the primary uncertainty. Companies are investing because customers are asking for the capacity. Real cash is flowing. The next question is whether those investments generate the returns necessary to justify the scale of spending.
That is where the market has become more selective. The Magnificent 7 remain central to the earnings story, but the benefits of the cycle are reaching further. Energy, Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology are all reporting strong earnings growth, while companies across the index continue to demonstrate unusual pricing power and profitability.
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