Trading Desk: Celebrate The Baby Bull

Today the S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit a 52-week high, nudging above the levels they briefly held last summer. They’re now only 9-12% below their record peaks. And here more than 20% above their recent lows, a new bull market has been christened.

The only question is how long the good mood lasts before some new shock gets in its way. I’m not particularly worried because 20% is really just a number. There’s no intrinsic rule that makes a 19.99% rally less meaningful than one that pushes up a fraction higher.

But this shows that the bear’s grip is weakening week by week. People are tired of fear. We know we can survive interest rates that only look elevated in the light of over a decade of money basically costing nothing at all. This is normal. And normal is pretty good.

Some companies are expanding fast. The bar is not high. Right now, the S&P 500 is barely pushing revenue 4% in the current year, which is statistically a stall at barely half the usual rate. Earnings are going the other way as inflation eats everyone’s cash flow alive.

But like I said, some companies are expanding fast. That’s where a bull market draws its strength. These are the companies that can lead the way into the next market cycle.

Here’s part of what I told my GameChangers subscribers a few days ago:

This was a spectacular quarter for our stocks. Since the unofficial start of the 1Q23 earnings cycle on April 12, companies currently in the GameChangers portfolio have soared 29% in the aggregate, with explosive gains on the likely suspects leading the way.

The gains weren’t evenly distributed, but they don’t need to be. Everything in the portfolio managed to at least hold its ground over the last two months, even our laggard . . . which has started rebounding nicely as the market’s overall mood brightens. The Buy List is up close to 7% in the past week alone, edging ahead of the NASDAQ and leaving the S&P 500 in the dust.

Chart after chart has lit up as the lingering glow of a strong earnings cycle sets the tone for the remainder of the season. While the last few days have turned a little tentative as Wall Street braces for next week’s Fed meeting, it’s gotten harder for the bears to argue that stocks like ours aren’t worth owning at this price.

After all, each of these companies are actively expanding at a rate far faster than the economy as a whole, their peers in the S&P 500 or ambient inflation. They’re getting bigger, making progress at a moment when whole sectors are struggling to do more than stall.

That’s a classic recipe for fresh market leadership. Whether a recession is now inevitable or even imminent, our companies have proved that they can improve their relative stature across the cycle. They’re capturing market share from entrenched competitors, shaking up their chosen industries and making money in the process.

You don’t have to be a GameChangers subscriber. But I don’t want you to miss the turn when it comes.

After all, the bulls now only need to push the S&P 500 another 9% to start breaking records again. From there, they go as far as they can. Again, don’t miss out!