Economists have been speculating about a recession for over a year now. While none have been called yet, it now looks like demand for cardboard boxes will cut into both economic activity and inflation.

Yes, cardboard box sales are a leading indicator. When they go negative, manufacturing activity ultimately tends to follow. Right now, U.S. box makers are operating at only 80% capacity, which shows that orders just aren’t coming in like they did in the pandemic boom.

But here’s the thing: the big downswing in box demand happened late last year. Since then, the situation apparently hasn’t deteriorated enough to update the numbers.

There’s no hint of an extended crisis in the box industry. If anything, industry trade shows are sold out, reflecting engagement and extra cash to spend flying people around the country.

And while box sales dipped six months ago, no formal recession has been called. Say it with me, “the world did not end.” We are still here talking about it.

To me, this signals something more interesting than a crash on the horizon. Soaring box demand was a symptom of COVID-era consumer buying patterns. We needed more boxes to handle more deliveries.

A return to more normal consumption means fewer boxes but not necessarily fewer retail sales. And a return to normal retail activity may mean unusual supply constraints and price pressures are easing.

We may see a box recession and relief from inflation . . . but not a more widespread recession. I’m not predicting it, but it’s crucial to maintain the possibility in a world where so many people are trying to tell you to sell your stock and hide under the bed.

A box recession may not be so bad. There’s always a recession somewhere. We don’t own box maker stocks right now.

And I’d think twice about buying AMZN right now. Who do you think was stuffing all those boxes and now no longer needs quite so many?