Value Authority Earnings Preview

Earnings season is upon us, with several financial companies kicking off the season late last week.

While the early results have been mixed so far, these reports have had little impact on the overall market so far. The fact is rising long-term interest rates have slowed market momentum in recent weeks. So, bulls are counting on good earnings results to reignite the market rally. With the S&P 500 selling at nearly 22X this earnings estimates, the overall market may have some excesses to work off first, though.

With that said, there is still decent value in our Value Authority stocks, and we should extend the gains we have enjoyed this year. As always, I will adjust as needed, and add new opportunities as they come up. But for right now, we’re ready for the current earnings season—so let’s preview our companies’ upcoming reports.

Core Holdings

Genuine Parts (GPC) will report first-quarter earnings on April 18 prior to the market open. Expectations are for EPS of $2.16, vs. $2.14 last year, on a 1.3% increase in revenues. Investors will be looking for stability in the North American auto business, which has struggled in recent quarters. Slight declines in profitability here will be offset by ongoing strength in the company’s industrial parts business, as it should benefit from signs that the industrial economy may be picking up.

After a strong performance following its most-recent earnings report, the stock has fallen back in the past few weeks. However, the stock remains cheap at just over 15X this year’s EPS estimate. If the auto business stabilizes, my $160 target is very achievable. I am raising my buy under price for GPC to $142.

Honeywell (HON) will report first-quarter earnings on April 25 before the market opens. Expectations are for EPS of $2.17, vs. $2.07 last year, on a 5.8% increase in revenues. Strength in aerospace is expected to help offset weakness in the company’s automation business.

The stock sold off last week, perhaps on concerns that safety issues at Boeing (BA) would slow the company’s aerospace juggernaut. I am interested to see what is said about the issue on the conference call next week, but I currently don’t expect any significant negative impact.

HON remains a high-quality industrial with strong returns on investment and a solid balance sheet. At 20X EPS estimates, the stock sells at less than a market multiple, which is unusual for a company with a strong growth history in the current market environment. HON is a buy below $200. My target is $220.

Kraft Heinz (KHC) will report first-quarter earnings on May 1 before the market opens. Expectations are for EPS of $0.64, vs. $0.68 last year, on a 5.9% decline in revenues. The familiar pattern of price increases should offset volume losses.

The stock has had a nice run following a favorable market reaction to earnings from rival General Mills (GIS). At 12X this year’s EPS estimates, the stock is still cheap. If new CEO Carlos Abrams-Rivera can be successful in his attempts to rejuvenate the company’s brands, there could be upside in the stock past my $40 target. KHC is a buy below $35. The 4.4% dividend yield will continue to support the shares.

PepsiCo. (PEP) will report first-quarter earnings on April 23, with expectations for EPS of $1.52, vs. $1.50 last year, on a 15% increase in revenues. It will be a slow start in 2024 for PEP, but it is the least critical quarter of the year. Plus, an improvement in Frio-Lay and a lower impact from the Quaker Oats recall should allow the company to grow revenues organically 4% for the whole year.

The stock is off to a decent start since last month’s recommendation, aided by an analyst upgrade. As confidence grows that this high-quality company will be able to earn $8.15 a share this year, the stock will recover some of the ground it lost over the past year. PEP is a buy below $170. My target is $193.

Phibro Animal Health (PAHC) will report third-quarter fiscal results in early May, with expectations for flat EPS of $0.29 and flat revenues.

We have seen results start to stabilize for PAHC this year, and this trend should continue with the core animal health division solid, and the company’s and customers’ inventories in a much better position than at the start of the fiscal year. The stock is trading well off its lows for the year, but at just over 10X forward earnings estimates, I think it has more room to run. PAHC is a buy below $14. My target is $17.

Sonoco Products (SON) will report first-quarter earnings towards the end of the month, with expectations for EPS of $1.05, vs. $1.40 last year, on a 2.9% decline in revenues. However, the company is hopeful that it will return to growth later this year, thanks to an improving industrial economy and the potential for price increases.

SON stock has not been acting strongly but has stabilized to some extent. If the company shows that it can return to growth, it could be a major catalyst, especially with the stock still very cheap at 11.5X next year’s EPS estimates. SON is a buy below $60. My target is $70.

Sysco Corp. (SYY) will report fiscal third-quarter earnings on April 30 before the market opens, Expectations are for EPS of $0.95, vs. $0.90 last year, on a 4.8% increase in revenues, as the company continues its pattern of steady growth.

The stock has fallen back in recent weeks, mainly due to concerns that restaurant traffic is falling back as higher gasoline prices hurt consumer spending. I believe these fears are overblown, and Sysco is a good value at 18X this year’s EPS estimates. Buy SYY under $80. My target is $92.

WEC Energy (WEC) will report first-quarter earnings on May 1, with expectations for EPS of $1.81, vs. $1.61 last year, on a 3.3% increase in revenues. The company benefited from more favorable winter weather and continued investments in renewable energy.

The shares have been steady despite the rise in long-term rates, as too much regulatory concerns have been priced in the stock. While there will always be an occasional loss with regulators, I believe the addition of renewable assets that will be added to the company’s rate base will allow for the mid-single digit EPS gains that the company targets. Buy WEC under $79. My target is $86.

Value Trades

Kennametal (KMT) will report fiscal third-quarter earnings in late April, with expectations for EPS of $0.30, vs.  $0.39 last year, and flat revenues on a core basis. Profitability will continue to be limited by higher raw material costs and general inflation. However, an improved industrial economy and cost-cutting efforts should allow profitability to improve as the year goes on. While the stock has not yet performed to my expectations, I want to see how first-quarter earnings do before moving on to a new trade. At current depressed levels, downside is limited. Buy KMT under $26. My target is $35.