The market is once again approaching new highs, as stocks are shrugging off signs of slowing economic growth. There is also hope that an eventual trade agreement between the United States and China will cause growth to accelerate. While I believe there is a chance that this scenario could happen, given some of the uncertainties ahead, I still want to manage our risk.
With this in mind, I am recommending sale of First Hawaiian, Inc. (FHB). The stock is trading at a price where it has met resistance this year, and with loan growth lackluster in recent quarters and the yield curve flatter, earnings growth will be difficult over the next 12 months.
Given this and the rising risks in the economy, sell FHB.
At the same time, I am recommending purchase of General Mills (GIS).
The company has been the gold standard in food stocks over the past five years, producing stable earnings results even as its well-known branded foods have come under pressure from new competitors. The stock has slipped around 7% from its high for the year as fiscal first-quarter revenues slightly missed estimates.
However, I believe this is an opportunity for us, as operating momentum still remains favorable, and the stock is reasonably valued at 16.5X fiscal May 2020 earnings per share (EPS) with a dividend yield of 3.7%. Buy GIS under $54. My target is $60.
If you are an Inner Circle subscriber who is following the model portfolio, buy GIS and sell FHB as well.