So there’s a debt ceiling deal. The Treasury market did not crash. And despite all the Fed’s best efforts, housing prices are up. For every mass layoff, there’s another company happy to absorb precious workers.
We just got evidence that the economy as a whole created 339,000 more jobs than it eliminated last month. That’s a net win for households. And it really isn’t a sign of stress.
For once, Wall Street is cheering. People aren’t afraid of the Fed any more. The difference between 5.25% and 5.5% or even 5.75% isn’t really all that high. Whether we get another rate hike this month or in July is really immaterial at this point.
And that’s what really matters. It’s about attitude. Remember, generations of investors tolerated overnight lending rates in the 5-6% range along with the occasional spike to much higher levels.
Money cost this much or more between November 1994 and September 1998. You might have heard of that era. It was the biggest technology boom in history at the time. Investors did extremely well.
The economy was moving at peak speed. The Fed couldn’t slow it down. Great jobs were created. Whole industries were born. People became valuable again and were offered compensation to match.
Was it really so bad? The recession didn’t start for another two years, when the Fed finally pushed overnight rates beyond 6.5%. Maybe we hit that level in this cycle. It’s hard to say.
But I know that the economic environment of 1994-8 was extremely survivable. We made it through that era and we can make it through this one. Investors will end up ahead.
If you don’t believe that, I have to ask: what do you think has changed in the American spirit? What broke?