Trading Desk: War Drums Beat, Wall Street Shrugs

So there it is. U.S. bombers have hit Iranian nuclear facilities and Tehran is threatening to interrupt oil shipping through the Straits of Hormuz, which would effectively cut off about a third of all petroleum supply.

And if hostilities escalate across the region and beyond, investors who have been dreading these headlines for a generation could be forgiven for thinking the end of the world is at hand. Fear is one of the primal forces on Wall Street. When we lose confidence that the future will resemble the past, the natural impulse is to exit positions and get liquid.

But global financial markets are barely flinching. Oil is up 2% as I write this. Gold is inching up as well.

Bond yields are inching down as a little as some nervous money shifts toward the famously defensive posture of U.S. Treasury debt. And that money is coming out of stocks, pushing index futures down a fraction.

It looks like just another Sunday. From these numbers, Wall Street is going into the new week in an incrementally gloomier mood . . . a little less tolerant of the risk factors. More things can go wrong with carefully orchestrated forecasts and projections.

Certainty has stepped back a bit, which is another way to say confidence has softened a little. Wall Street hasn’t quite flinched, but you can feel the added tension in the air. New scenarios have opened up. We don’t know which ones will play out, but on the whole the road to the future looks less smooth than it did on Friday.

Shocks like this are part of the world investors need to live in. There’s always a “black swan” on the horizon. Every few years, we hit a bump that turns into a bear market, a recession or both. Sometimes we can go years without a break in the calm. We get complacent.

And sometimes the shocks crowd so closely together that it can feel like one potential disaster after the next. It’s only human to get anxious waiting for the next shoe to drop . . . and after too many shocks, patience runs out. We lose our nerve.

Sooner or later, almost everyone folds. We’ve learned enough over the years to hold onto a good hand as long as we can. The best stocks on the market are probably going to be the best place to ride out global turmoil. After all, these are the corporations that built the modern world in a lot of ways . . . and they’re building the future as well.

They’re big. They generate a vast amount of money. They’re expanding, making progress instead of going backward. Getting stronger, not weaker. Pivoting to opportunities and addressing challenges that arise.

There are opportunities here too. One of my favorite markets, Tel Aviv, is rallying right now. They think the long cold war with Iran is finally going to end, which will do a lot to lift the cloud that’s hung over these stocks for years.

Is that cynical or just cold investment risk-return calculations? Remember, Israel is on the front line here. If the world melts down, they’ll feel the brunt first and fiercest. And yet their stocks are up tonight.

The risk of geopolitical crisis has been factored so completely into that market that chaos felt like the baseline scenario. The possibility or “rumor” drove investors away. Now that the bad news has broken, those same investors are coming back.

When it gets scariest, the best investors back up the truck and start buying great assets their less-courageous peers dumped because it was getting too hot and too scary for their comfort. Whatever we see in the coming week is an opportunity. It always is.