Trading Desk: The Victory Lap

Sometimes you need to keep listening to the long-term signals when everyone else is obsessed with noise. That’s what we did with a “little” software company Palantir (PLTR) a few years ago . . . and now the hosts on Fox business shows are holding victory parades for me on air.

The story is simple and you can see it in the first part of this clip from last week. Back in March, I got really aggressive about PLTR as the best play on the Artificial Intelligence revolution. They thought I was a little crazy, but they let me talk.

After all, NVIDIA was the easy choice and felt like it was on a one-way trip to the stratosphere at the time, up 50% YTD whereas little PLTR was having trouble breaking out of what was then a $20-$25 range.

I guess it made good television. But here we are now, nine months later. Little PLTR has easily tripled if not quadrupled . . . while mighty NVDA has only rallied another 50% if you look at it right.

Both stocks did well. The little one ran rings around the big one. That’s how life actually works in the stock market once you’re paying attention for more than a few weeks at a time.

The lesson is clear. Big stocks and little stocks both go up, but you need to be in the little stocks early and hang on until they get a chance to grow. It’s basic math.

My GameChangers subscribers got a shot at PLTR at $10, about a year before I mentioned it on Fox. They were already 100-150% in the green when the TV audience came in.

But we didn’t sell. The math compounded faster the longer we held on. When you’re in at $20, every $1 the stock goes up gives you 5%. When you’re in at $10, that dollar is 10%.

Think about what that means for PLTR and NVDA. Sure, when you adjust for splits NVDA was only a $10 stock four years ago . . . but because those shares were already nudging $50 a year ago, long-term shareholders had already taken a 400% win before 2024 even started.

Here around $135, they’ve done extremely well. But that’s the past. If you weren’t in NVDA four years ago, all you can do is congratulate people who were and look for opportunities to have similar luck in the future.

Likewise, we’re unlikely to get another shot at PLTR at $10. The company is going too many good places, just like I told Fox. But here at $80, someone can still ride to $100 or $135 or beyond.

All you need is the courage to trust the company to keep trending higher despite the intervening market storms. We all want big gains. That means getting into companies when they’re smaller and hanging on until they’re big.

And companies like NVDA prove that a “small” company can get awful big. This is now a $3 trillion enterprise.

PLTR may never ring that $3 trillion bell. Down here at $180 billion, it’s already joined the S&P 500 and not a lot of those companies have ever hit mega-cap status . . . but there’s a long way between $180 billion and $3 trillion.

Say NVDA adds $1 trillion to its market cap in the next five years. Shareholders who bought in at $10 will cheer and the rest of us will watch the stock climb maybe another 30-35%.

Say PLTR grows only half that much in the same period. That’s $500 billion on top of $180 billion or about 175%. Obviously those of us who were here at $10 will cheer as loud as NVDA shareholders have cheered . . . but unlike NVDA, there’s still a lot of future here to capture.

We invest in the future. We can study the past but we can never invest in it. And that’s why GameChangers is having the best year in history. Next year might even be better. We’re finally getting a chance to add crypto to the platform. You in or watching from the sidelines?