What a difference a year makes. Last summer, stocks were trading at roughly this level after fighting their way out of a 25% nosedive. The S&P 500 was on the brink of breaking into a cyclical bull market . . . and then the bear struck back.

In theory, the wrong notes from the Fed later this month could trigger a similar reversal. We could see the market’s gains since March evaporate like just another soap bubble. If the shock is severe enough, Wall Street could even be flirting with a 10-15% correction.

But it’s going to be tough to manufacture that much shock. A year ago, a lot of traders were still naively hoping Jay Powell would be their friend and roll interest rates back down before inflation was truly on the ropes . . . and he wouldn’t need a better reason than the fact that we were sad.

There were no bank crashes to worry about a year ago. Earnings were still moving up across the S&P 500 at a reasonable rate. The brinksmanship around the debt ceiling didn’t trigger that kind of shock or even a whole lot of fresh fear.

Wall Street has learned to manage its fears. We’ve done the hard work and can once again tell the difference between a challenge and a catastrophe. Relationships to risk are a lot healthier, a lot less brittle.

We were still grappling with the real catastrophe of COVID a year ago, trying to figure out what the world beyond the pandemic would look like. Would we keep working from home? Would offices vanish? Was the housing boom over?

How could the economy survive without the sugar rush of infinite free money and PPP payouts? We have a much better grip on the answers now. Free money is over. We’re still here.

And the charts look a whole lot better than they did a year ago. Last summer, the major trends pointed down and every cycle of hope and disappointment pushed the indices farther below those trend lines. Support was theoretical. Resistance seemed to pop up every time Jay Powell talked . . . or maybe it was the other way around.

Now the trend lines point up. They’re rising. And the major indices are above those lines, which means that while they might drop back to those “normal” levels when they get too far ahead of themselves, breaking below what’s now a floor is much harder than it was last summer.

Maybe the S&P 500 retreats 4-8% when it hits a wall. But then it gets back up. And while it’s moving, historical barriers to the upside look vulnerable. Remember, this is in the face of the banks and everything else. All the known threats are baked in.

The Dow looks a little more stable and a little more stuck. I don’t see it going down much here, as bank-heavy as it is. I don’t see it going up a lot here either. There’s maybe a 2-3% band on either side of zero here to explore. Anything better is a clear signal the bear market is dead once and for all.

Yes, the Dow is barely 6% below record territory. We’re not even in the correction zone now.

And the NASDAQ is flying. Is it going too fast? Maybe. I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least a 9-10% correction later this summer.

But that’s unlikely until a bad earnings cycle intervenes in the momentum that already dominates these charts. And in that scenario, Big Tech could rebound 14-15% as easily as drop 9-10% . . . or do one and then the other, in either order. Once again, that’s all that’s keeping the NASDAQ from killing its bear.

My GameChangers stocks are up 10% in the last two weeks. It could happen. And when there are no excuses, greed and envy are free to take over from fear. I think they’ll spread quickly. And I’m looking forward to it.