I want to be extremely clear here as we look toward the last trading week of a sometimes contentious year: while I would not sell the market as a whole at this stage, you would need to twist my arm to get me to buy it. Things aren’t awful across the economy but they aren’t universally fantastic either.

In other words, you still need to pick your spots with care. You need to avoid sectors that are overextended . . . and stay focused on the areas of real opportunity in the market.

When you can pick your stocks, you can do really well in the coming year. But while the index funds might not crash in the coming year, they might also struggle to give you more than a few percentage points.

Here’s what I mean. Yes, earnings are on track to end this year at a record level across the S&P 500. That’s a good thing. The market as a whole deserves to trade at or around record levels.

Very few people argue about that. We’ve earned the results of the past year. The question is where the market goes from here . . . and the answer is not necessarily bullish.

After all, while record earnings logically support record stock prices, there’s always a chance consensus is overly optimistic. The analysts are usually about 7% too generous in their earnings estimates when a year begins, which means that the 11% growth they’re looking for now might only turn into 4% when everything is said and done.

And that’s a problem when even in the rosiest scenario the S&P 500 is already priced at 19X forward earnings. That’s a rich valuation. If the index edges even 10% higher in the coming year, we’d need to see the bottom line rise at least 10% simply to justify the move.

Either way, it’s going to take more than that to make the market actually compelling or attractive. In other words, if people buy the S&P 500 in the coming year, it’s because they see no alternative . . . and not because it’s what they truly want.

On the other hand, maybe enough money will flow into the stocks that are growing faster and trading at compelling levels to drive the overall market higher. That’s not so bad, especially if you own the stocks in question.

In my view, it makes more sense to focus on the strongest growth sectors, where companies have enough juice to defy the otherwise sluggish macro environment. That means the usual suspects: communications, technology and AMZN, along with the broad healthcare and consumer sectors. Look to META and the hotels.

Skip the rest. Or rather, skip the sectors . . . but if you see the individual stocks trading at a discount, go for it. That’s how you make money even if the market as a whole stalls.