Trading Desk: Risk On AND Risk Off

As I was preparing for today’s appearance on Fox Business, a member of the team asked me whether we should tell viewers to buy or sell the market. Good question, but the answer was a little complicated.

Start with the timing element. The market as a whole looks like it’s gotten overheated. In the next month or so, I’m looking for a significant downswing. If you’re afraid of losing a little ground, that’s your sell signal.

But the question is how “significant” that downswing really is. Recent history suggests it could be as minor as 3% . . . or in a “bad” dip like what we endured back in April, maybe 5-6% before the buyers swoop in again.

Remember that there’s $6 trillion on the sidelines that will move out of cash the minute the Fed flashes the green light on lower interest rates. That money is only parked there to capture the current overnight yield. When that yield goes down, the money needs to get moving again.

And the Fed will be the market’s friend in other ways. The way I calculate it, every 0.25% rate cut gives the S&P 500 room to rise another 3-4% into record territory.

That rate cut might come in September, so if you’re afraid of a 5-6% dip, make sure you buy in before the mood turns back in the bulls’ favor. Otherwise, you could get crowded out on the reentry and end up missing a big piece of the next leg up.

To me, it just isn’t worth the trouble. I’ll tolerate a few points of paper losses for a few months to avoid missing out on a few points of paper profit in the months after that.

I guess that’s not a real “sell” signal. It isn’t a buy signal right now either. If I’m right, there isn’t a lot of point in buying in now and watching your money stall through the summer.

So hold what you have. And those of you with cash to deploy can cheer any dip when it comes.

But maybe you’re already looking toward the longer term. In that scenario, there are always “buy” and “sell” signals throughout every portfolio.

If you can’t explain to yourself why you own a stock, it’s a sell. And there are only two reasons to own a stock. Either you bought it cheap and it’s paying dividends while you wait for the market to see the light . . . or the company is growing faster than the market as a whole.

That’s it. Value is superficially easy to find with the S&P 500 trading at a lofty 21X forward earnings, but a lot of “cheap” companies trade at a discount for a good reason. It can take months or years to turn the stocks around.

While you’re waiting for a stalled stock to recover, you need to be able to make money on it in the meantime. That’s what dividends are for. We’re locking in big ones in my Value Authority these days.

And as for growth, the market is booming with 9% higher earnings projected in the current quarter. That’s the bar. Any company more dynamic is worth taking a look.

Those stocks are hot. We focus on them in GameChangers . . . and are racking up record results. Take a look!