For months, global markets have been trying to read the tea leaves on trade policy. Now, it seems we have a clear signal. If you want to do business with the United States, the new price of admission is shaping up to be 15%. And that’s not just speculation — it’s a number that’s starting to appear in signed deals and serious negotiations.

The administration of President Trump appears to be establishing 15% as a new global minimum tariff, a notable step up from the 10% baseline that was floated just a few weeks ago. Recent events back this up. A new trade pact with Japan cemented a 15% rate on various goods, and reports suggest the European Union is trying to close a similar deal to avoid something worse. The president himself has spoken of a simple tariff structure for cooperating nations that would range from 15% to 50%.

What was once dismissed as campaign trail rhetoric about putting a “ring around the collar” of the U.S. economy is now becoming concrete policy. And here’s the curious part: the market seems to be okay with it.

In a classic case of “it could have been worse,” traders are breathing a sigh of relief. The recent deal with Japan, for instance, actually sparked a rally in both U.S. and Japanese markets. Why? Because Japanese automakers saw their tariff rate fall from a threatened 25% down to a manageable 15%. In today’s trading environment, certainty, even if it comes at a price, is preferable to a constant state of suspense over potentially crippling duties.

But let’s be clear: 15% is the floor, not the ceiling. The administration has shown it’s more than willing to go higher. Tariffs on steel and aluminum remain at a steep 50%, and there are plans for similar rates on copper. We are also hearing threats of much higher sectoral tariffs on critical industries like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.

Furthermore, the highest rates seem reserved for countries that fall out of political favor. Brazil, for example, is reportedly facing 50% duties due to disagreements over its government’s treatment of a political ally of the president. Officials there seem to be losing hope of negotiating that number down before it takes effect. Other recent pacts with nations like Vietnam and the Philippines have settled in the 19-20% range.

There has been one notable exception. The United Kingdom managed to secure a deal with rates below 15% back in May, but that window appears to have closed. As a top Treasury official noted, the first to the negotiating table often gets the best deal. For everyone else, 15% is the new starting point.

All of this sets the stage for the main event: ongoing talks with China, where a 30% blanket tariff is already in place. As negotiators prepare to meet, the central question is no longer about reducing tariffs, but simply preventing them from climbing even higher. The market, once terrified by the mere mention of tariffs, has been conditioned to see a 15% global tax as a win. Strange days, indeed.