Trading Desk: Good Numbers, Bad Times On Wall Street

Another earnings season has reached critical mass, with 40% of the S&P 500 already announcing their quarterly results. The vast majority of the numbers have been good, giving Wall Street more than everything the analysts said they wanted.

Corporate America is booming. Almost 4 out of 5 big companies have beaten consensus on the bottom line. They’re doing better than the average outsider doing the calculations anticipated.

And growth is tracking at a robust 9.8% . . . again, boom territory and almost 1 percentage point faster than consensus. Things are good out there. Even better than expected.

But unfortunately, so much winning was already priced into the market that investors aren’t rushing to buy the news. There just isn’t any reason to buy a market that’s trading at 20.6X earnings . . . even if earnings are tracking a little better than anticipated.

For one thing, a lot of the fastest-growing companies are also the most richly valued. They’ve already gotten ahead of their fundamentals. The rally happened early, robbing future shareholders of the chance to ride the wave.

And when a big company fumbles, this isn’t the kind of market that’s willing to be patient. Those that miss consensus are dropping close to 4% in response. Ouch!

Meanwhile, the widespread winners aren’t doing great. On average, those that beat consensus are climbing a whopping 0.3% on the news . . . far from enough to make it worthwhile to hold the market as a whole.

Consider: 80% of the stocks are winning and climbing 0.3%. The other 20% are losing and dropping 4%. That’s an aggregate score that translates into an 0.55% net drop!

Ouch. There’s just no incentive here to play those numbers until they improve. I’m staying selective in the meantime . . . a few winners like SPOT, a few options trades. Ask me again when the Fed plays through next week.