The only thing shocking about the Fed projecting another 1-2 rate hikes this year is that some investors seem to think this is something new or unanticipated. It never was. Smart money always suspected that was the plan all along.

But stocks were already overheated and technically overbought. Sector after sector was starting to stretch the limits of statistical probability. All they needed was an excuse . . . a convenient narrative to give investors a little confidence that now is the time to take some profit and step toward the sidelines.

That’s where Jay Powell came in. He loves to talk tough when the market is looking a little vulnerable. That’s when his statements create the biggest impact. He looks like he’s in charge. And so when he sees the market in an overbought state, he’s all too happy to give investors that excuse they wanted.

He isn’t telling us anything new. The rate futures market hasn’t really budged in the past month. The only question was whether we’d see the next little hike in June or July.

Here on the edge of July, the June meeting is over and it’s clear that the Fed didn’t see a need to raise rates immediately. All that happens here is that the decision gets pushed down the calendar by at least a month.

But during that month there’s no additional rate pressure. Money doesn’t get cheaper. It doesn’t get more expensive either.

And a month from now, when that July meeting rolls around, we’ll be well in the grip of another earnings season. Companies will tell us roughly how bad it gets in the current economic environment but they’ll also tell us when they see the light at the end of the tunnel.

We’ll also get more updates on the inflation environment as well. If inflation goes down, that rate hike can get pushed off again. This can go on a long time.

When inflation goes down, the Fed will actually read it as a phantom rate hike because that’s how it will feel in real or inflation-adjusted terms. They’ll need to cut in order to keep everything balanced.

They don’t see a cut this year. But in six months, we’re in a new year. And in six months, we’ll be a full two years into the tightening cycle without the world imploding.

Every day the world doesn’t implode is a day we can trade and await the long-term returns we know good stocks can provide. As I say, any economic landing you walk away from is pretty good. So far, we keep walking away.

And stocks cycle up and down. Sometimes the Fed is the excuse for a move in either direction . . . sometimes it isn’t.