Trading Desk: The Consumer Is In Control

Through all the shocks and transformations of recent years, the consumer still drives 68% of the U.S. economy . . . and if you’re nervous about the depth of the “earnings recession” playing out right now, consider using the consumer as your shield.

Here’s how the math is playing out so far this earnings season. Consumer staples stocks are on track to raise their earnings about 3% from last year, which is not impressive in its own right until you digest the fact that earnings across the S&P 500 as a whole are coming in 9% below last year’s levels.

Commodity producers are suffering as materials prices drop, pushing revenue into free fall. Healthcare companies are also watching their fundamentals move in the wrong direction because while the top line is rising a bit, costs are soaring, effectively eating their margins alive.

But when you get to Big Food and other breadbasket companies, you see a relatively sustainable pattern emerge. On the whole, costs are climbing with inflation and these companies find a way to pass the pain on to consumers. Margins aren’t under pressure. They’re actually fairly stable.

And while there are competitive winners and losers here, the sector as a whole just isn’t feeling any pain. It’s business as usual. Unless the consumer hits a hard budget wall, there’s no recession here . . . and suddenly that 3% year-over-year growth looks extremely attractive because it might not be huge but at least it isn’t negative.

So if you’re looking to avoid owning companies in active decline, feel free to park your cash in names like Pepsi (PEP) and Mondelez (MDLZ), because there’s no sign of the consumer hitting that wall right now. Remember, what’s driving inflation at this stage is the unsettled and overheated job market.

People are demanding more money to work. When they don’t get it, they can find other positions fairly easily. They’re staying employed. The paychecks keep coming. That’s not what a hard wall looks like.

I know this because consumer discretionary companies, which live and die on the “extra” money American households have to work with when the necessities are covered, are booming. Sales across the sector are up almost 8% from last year, moving faster than ambient inflation.

This means that these companies aren’t simply passing on higher costs while their underlying businesses stall. They’re moving more units at higher price points. They’re growing.

And at this scale, earnings across the sector are tracking 31% higher than they were a year ago. Of course this average score conceals a lot of underlying weakness in a lot of industry groups, but the strength shines for itself.

Most retailers are suffering. Amazon (AMZN) is soaring. Vacation stocks are going hyperbolic. Buy Booking (BKNG) and Expedia (EXPE). Buy the airlines. Buy hotels. This is all you really need to capture the consumer boom.

Buy restaurant stocks like Cava (CAVA). Skip furniture, Home Depot (HD) and clothing stocks.

And if all you want is growth, you’ll probably be tempted to dance with Tesla (TSLA). But I think you’ll find better hunting elsewhere.

The consumer is resilient. But there’s only so many cars each of us can buy. Amazon, on the other hand, is theoretically infinite . . . and until pent-up “revenge travel” ebbs, the airlines have nowhere to go but up.