If there is one thing that should make a seasoned trader sweat, it isn’t a grim earnings report or a hawkish Federal Reserve chairman. It’s when everyone on Wall Street agrees.

Welcome to 2026. As we kick off the trading year, we are witnessing a phenomenon that hasn’t happened in ages: total capitulation by the bears. A recent survey of twenty-one top market strategists found that around zero are predicting a market decline this year. 

The consensus is absolute. The big banks and the boutique shops have linked arms to predict a fourth straight year of gains for the S&P 500, aiming for a streak we haven’t seen since the dot-com era.

The average forecast sees the index jumping another 9%, pushing well past the 7,000 mark. But as any contrarian will tell you, when the entire stadium is betting on the home team, it might be time to check the odds again.

The Schadenfreude of the Converted

The most entertaining part of this new consensus is watching the permabears throw in the towel. Just last year, major institutions like JPMorgan Chase were predicting doom — forecasting a 12% drop for 2025. Instead, the market rallied nearly 18%.

Now, those same analysts have flipped the script. They cite resilient growth, cooling inflation, and the belief that the AI boom is a genuine economic transformation rather than a bubble. It is a classic case of “if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em.” But investors should be wary of forecasts born out of the fear of missing out rather than fundamental conviction.

The optimism is particularly surprising given the rollercoaster we just got off of. 2025 was not a smooth ride. We saw a near-bear market plunge of almost 20% between February and April, triggered by panic over “DeepSeek” challenging US AI dominance and a chaotic trade war initiated by the President.

Strategists slashed their targets during that panic, only to scramble and raise them again when the market staged one of the fastest recoveries since the 1950s. The lesson? These targets are often lagging indicators, reacting to price action rather than predicting it.

While the “Goldilocks” scenario — solid growth, lower rates, strong earnings — is the popular narrative, some veterans are keeping one eye on the exit. Christopher Harvey, one of the few analysts who actually nailed the 2025 target, warns that the market is “sleeping” on macro risks.

• The Fed: Traders are pricing in rate cuts, but if the economy stays this hot, the Fed might hold steady.
• Tariffs: The trade war fears have calmed, but new levies on neighbors like Canada or Mexico could reignite inflation.
• Valuation: We are up 90% since the October 2022 lows. Perfection is priced in.

Even the biggest bulls, like Ed Yardeni, admit that the lack of dissent is unsettling. When being a pessimist goes out of style, the market loses its natural checks and balances.

The Bottom Line

The fundamental setup is undeniably strong. Corporate America is expected to post double-digit earnings growth, and the AI spend is broadening beyond just the tech giants. But when 100% of the experts say “buy,” the prudent move is to verify.

Enjoy the rally, but keep your stops tight. The crowd is right until the very moment they aren’t.