Strategy Session: How Far Can The Bull Run?

After a rocky year, the S&P 500 finally clawed its way back to bull market territory in June 2023. But was it a summit conquered, or just the first foothill on a treacherous ascent?

Buckle up, investors, because the answer is anything but predictable. History whispers some tantalizing tales of bull markets spinning fortunes from thin air, but also roars with the tremors of inevitable bear crashes. 

This 2023 beast, still young and untamed, holds both golden treasure and hidden pitfalls. Let’s dissect this bull by the horns. 

The Basics and History

First, a quick anatomy lesson: a bull market flexes its muscles when the S&P 500, our muscle-bound market index, bulks up by 20% from its last swoon. Think of it as the market finally doing those squats it promised itself in January.

But just like with any workout, there are no guaranteed gains. Since 1957, twelve bulls have stomped through the market jungle, averaging a five-year reign and a 169% return. Not bad, for those who held on through the occasional burpee of a correction.

But here’s the kicker: those averages hide the wild stumbles and spectacular leaps. Some bulls snorted and charged for a decade, like the 1990s behemoth that quadrupled its worth. Others tripped and stumbled after just two years, leaving investors with bruised portfolios.

The Current Market

So, where does our 2023 bull stand? Well, it’s barely out of its calfskin stage. Sure, it’s climbed steadily since October 2022, but the real question remains: 

Can this bull get to the peak of sustained growth, or will it stumble on inflation, recession and our current geopolitical tremors?

Optimists like LPL Financial’s Jeffrey Buchbinder see opportunity in the market’s sunshine. They believe the Fed’s deft maneuvers may achieve a soft landing, easing the economy down from its inflationary fever. 

Buying the Dip

This, coupled with investors eager to buy the dip after the first half’s surge, could fuel a glorious ascent for stocks like Apple (AAPL), a tech titan poised to benefit from continued digitalization, or Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), a resilient consumer staple riding the wave of healthy eating trends.

But remember, even the most seasoned climbers can get caught in blizzards. Unexpected economic storms, or the Fed suddenly yanking its support rope, could send the market crashing. This could impact riskier plays like Peloton Interactive (PTON), a pandemic darling facing post-lockdown challenges, or Beyond Meat (BYND), a plant-based protein pioneer grappling with increased competition.

The takeaway? Buckle up, diversify your portfolio, and keep your eyes on the horizon. This bull has the potential to be a legend, but treat it with respect, not blind faith. Remember, even Everest has base camps. Sometimes, the smartest move is to take cover and wait for the sun to break through.

The 2023 bull market may be young, but its story is just beginning. Will it conquer new heights, or face a fatal slip? Stay tuned, invest wisely, and enjoy the ride. This bull might just take you to the top of the world.