Stock market bulls –- periods in which prices seem to ascend relentlessly –- are a welcome sight after the downturns we call bear markets. In February, 2024, investors got some good news: stocks have officially entered a bull run. Despite potential headwinds, it’s time to start feeling positive again. This bull may have quite some life left in it after all!
Is this Bull About to Run Out of Steam?
The S&P 500 is commonly used to track the general health of the stock market. Some experts, recalling a market peak back in January 2022, hesitate to label the current period a true bull run.
However, a bit of historical perspective provides much-needed optimism. On average, S&P 500 bull markets historically last over three times longer than their bearish counterparts. That puts the expected lifespan of a typical bull market at over 1,000 days.
If our current bull follows suit, that means it could stretch all the way into July 2025!
How Long Can This Bull Run?
The world of investing is filled with unknowns, and crystal balls only exist in fairy tales. Trying to pinpoint the exact ceiling of this bull run is an exercise destined to cause frustration. Economic variables like inflation remain worrisome, and the Federal Reserve’s future actions on interest rates cast a shadow on the otherwise sunny landscape.
Yet one powerful lesson emerges from the annals of stock market history –- bulls have a tendency to surprise everyone. We often underestimate their stamina and capacity for growth. In much the same way a marathon runner finds reserves of energy long thought depleted, these bull markets can keep pushing higher than analysts dare anticipate.
This means exercising a degree of caution is sensible. Don’t abandon your long-term investment plan or bet your savings on a risky short-term play. However, don’t dismiss the clear message of history either: while there will certainly be bumps along the road, significant positive potential still lies within this market’s grasp.
My Advice
While switching investment strategies based on bull or bear markets might be tempting, most financial advisors stick to this timeless advice: stay the course. That’s because panic-selling during a downturn locks in losses, and then trying to jump back in as the market rallies leaves you buying high after already missing out on some of the gains. You could find yourself perpetually behind the curve.
The stock market dances to its own rhythm –- often out of sync with breaking news headlines and pundit predictions. Attempts to perfectly “time the market” are plagued by frustration and poor results, historically. Trying to guess tops and bottoms is the surest way to undermine your long-term plans.
Now is a good time to revisit your original financial goals and make sure your current investments remain aligned. Did you set out with a specific desired allocation between stocks and bonds? Those recent gains in stocks might have thrown things out of whack. If so, strategically selling some stock and purchasing bonds helps restore the balance and keeps you aligned with the risk level you’re comfortable with.
It’s Time to Feel Optimistic – Again
Bull markets are periods of growth and opportunity. Don’t miss out on the potential the future holds. It’s a great time to stay invested, review your overall financial plan, and position yourself strategically. While no one can predict the absolute peak of the market, wouldn’t it be sad to miss out on the ride if this bull keeps charging ahead? Now is the time to capitalize on the momentum!