This has been a spectacular earnings season as the S&P 500 growth curve reaccelerates above a stall for the first time in over a year and on the whole Big Tech successes outweigh the failures. The market is back in record-breaking territory.
Great, right? Sure, unless you were underweight META and AMZN or heavily overweight TSLA. Markets like this create winners and losers. If you picked the right names, you’ve run rings around the giants.
That’s just how the world works. Baby stocks with the right leadership and a robust business plan have the power to grow. They don’t need to become stratospheric world-conquering successes either.
META is now a member of the $1 trillion club. To double again in our lifetime, it needs to generate another $1 trillion in market capitalization. That probably means roughly doubling the fundamentals . . . which means finding another $125 billion or more.
I think they can do it over time. But maybe it will take close to a decade to do that. Meanwhile, if you found even $10 billion for a lot of smaller stocks, that cash would be a true force multiplier. And we can all agree that it’s not easy to find $10 billion just lying around ready to capture, not to mention $125 billion.
And META was one of the strong ones. So far, with only NVDA left in the Big Seven to report its numbers, the giants have jumped 10% since earnings season started. Huge. Deserved.
The rest of the S&P 500 continues to drag. By my math, the “S&P 493” minus the Big Seven is up less than 4% so far this season on the whole. But do you need to hold the giants and pray for that $125 billion to double your money on one of the smaller ones?
Not at all. I’m sitting on the two top large-cap names on Wall Street this week . . . and I don’t own META. I’ll tell you what they are in a few minutes.
First, however, let’s cheer the return of the bull. This is more than simply watching the S&P 500 conquer a round number. Algorithms and institutional investors don’t care about that.
What matters is that at moments like this, just about everyone in the market has made at least a little money if they had the nerve to buy stocks whenever they bought them and hold onto them until now. Consider that: there are effectively no buy-and-hold losers right now.
But of course, when everybody’s winning, psychology shifts from fear to envy. Fewer people care about capital preservation in this kind of market for the simple reason that more people are feeling relatively good. Comfort breeds confidence.
As long as no outside shocks rock the world in the next few months, I think this mood can feed on itself. In a bear market, we see “vicious circles” where fear spreads from obviously sick stocks across whole sectors as investors try to make the pain stop.
Now, the more normal “virtuous circles” can start driving money from strength to weakness and back again . . . a positive feedback loop, constructive rotation. When shareholders think they’ve made “enough” money on the leading names, the natural impulse is to lighten up at the top and overweight the stocks that have lagged so far.
The process spreads the gains. And the more names that are moving forward, the more wealth that Wall Street can create. It’s a good thing.
And now what are those two top large-cap stocks on the market? ARM is up 62% this week. We own it in the IPO Edge. It’s been a good week over there. We’ve been in ARM since right after its offering and are now looking at an 83% gain for merely five months.
This is the kind of stock that can ultimately look back and make an 83% gain look trivial. Think of AMZN at the start of its run. Adjusted for splits, it went public at 7 cents a share. I’m not even going to calculate the return. It’s absurd.
But it’s real. ARM is in just about all smartphones. Profit margins are extraordinary. And it’s at the start of its AI development cycle. For META to match its performance this week, we’d need to see literally tens of billions of dollars materialize out of thin air.
Unlikely! And then there’s PLTR, up “only” 43% this week. We own it in GameChangers. We’ve owned it since it wasn’t even a $10 stock. Here on the edge of conquering $25, there are people on Wall Street talking it up beyond $30.
That’s a clean double without magically making mega billions happen. And that’s how innovation works. You start small. You grow. Shareholders who stick around for the ride without bailing out early grow with the company.
I’d rather be in PLTR and ARM than NVDA and AAPL right now. There. I said it. The bulls are running, but some run a lot faster than others.