Daily Update: Where “Buy The Dip” Is Actually Working

It’s been a stormy week on Wall Street that ultimately leaves stocks in sight of where they started, but two headlines this morning cut nicely through the noise.

First, Deutsche Bank says U.S. households now hold more cash than debt for the first time since the early 1990s. If anything, the consumer is too strong for comfort . . . the Fed needs to pull some of that money back to keep the economic gears on track.

But strong consumer balance sheets mean that any recession on the horizon might be as mild and ultimately forgettable as the ones that cycled through the economy throughout the 1950s through the 1980s, when Americans were net savers and had significant resources to buffer the shocks.

Unless you’re reading this through a time machine, you know investors survived every one of those downswings and ultimately reaped the rewards of their tenacity. Even Deutsche Bank says the market should do just fine through next summer, correct about 20% and then rebound to fresh highs.

With that in mind, this looks like the kind of dip we can buy as long as we’re willing to wait at least a year for the exit . . . and that’s where the second headline comes in.

Cathie Wood is the most famous technology bull on Wall Street today. Her flagship fund is packed with sizzle stocks like Tesla, ROKU and Zoom.

She’s down a harrowing 45% YTD and 60% from the peak. But she’s buying more of the same stocks, effectively doubling down on bets that have gone nowhere good in the past year.

If her people are infinitely patient, I’m sure they’ll ultimately be rewarded. Those who demand more instant gratification are not getting what they want . . .

. . . because Cathie’s stocks just keep going down. And as long as they’re going down, an alert investor can come in later and build a position at a lower price.

I love to buy great stocks on the dip. But buying on the way down is only going to tie up your money and weigh on your mind while you’re waiting for the rebound.

What’s Actually Working

So what stocks are rebounding now? Which areas of the market are currently rewarding investors who buy the dips and hang on from week to week?

There are a lot of them. They just aren’t in Cathie Wood’s wheelhouse.

As I write this, a full 2 out of every 3 stocks in the S&P 500 is in 10% correction territory and most of them are down 20% or more from their peak. That’s a lot of dips to buy.

Bear market stocks include Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN) . . . and then there are names like Meta (FB) and NVIDIA (NVDA), down 40% to 50%. Staggering losses, costing shareholders hundreds of billions of dollars.

Today FB and NVDA hit new trading lows. Anyone who’s been buying those dips is underwater. And similar conditions apply down the technology food chain, where Cathie operates.

Like her, I love those stocks for the long haul. But I’m not a prisoner of her sector focus . . . I go wherever the trades actually get results.

And it turns out that half the S&P 500 has already bounced at least 10% above their recent lows. These are the dips someone could have bought and booked an instant gain.

Tesla is one of them. Cathie is still down 19% from the peak on that position, but at least it’s moving in the right direction now.

That’s the kind of dip to buy. What else makes the list? Traditional brick-and-mortar stocks. Defensive names, most of them paying dividends.

Names like Berkshire Hathaway (BRK). Warren Buffett’s old-school behemoth is still down 6% from its peak . . . but if you bought a few weeks ago at $318, you’re already in the money.

UnitedHealth (UNH) is a similar story. If you bought at $510, your position is moving in the right direction. Visa (V). Procter & Gamble (PG). Walmart (WMT). Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

The list is as far from Cathie Wood’s sizzle as it gets. But these are the stocks that Wall Street can’t resist right now when they show even momentary weakness.

They probably won’t be in the stratosphere a year from now. These aren’t that kind of company. However, recent trading shows that they’re pretty close to a bottom.

Whether you’re looking for near-term safety or near-term gains, these are the stocks that are working. And they are working. We’re looking at half the S&P 500 here.

There are even still some opportunities to build positions at a significant discount to recent peaks . . . names like Mastercard (MA), Eli Lilly (LLY), Abbvie (ABBV), Thermo Fisher (TMO), Nike (NKE).

Barring a complete economic apocalypse, the only threat these companies really face is that their stocks will underperform on Wall Street in the immediate future. After all, consumers are in good shape and while the Fed is a drag, a recession might be a year or more away.

These are consumer stocks, the fulcrum of the consumer economy. You can’t keep them down for long.

If you think sizzle is ready to grab the upper hand, then go for it. You’re in Cathie Wood’s camp.

But if you’re despairing because you keep buying the dip and your stocks keep going down . . . maybe you’re just looking at the wrong end of Wall Street.