A year ago, interest rates were going up and earnings were in decline. Every indicator pointed to an economic downswing on the wind . . . and for investors whose only real experience with a “normal” recession was 2008, the prospect was chilling.
Nobody wants to go back to the 2008-9 era or hold their head up while some of the biggest banks on the planet are imploding. It was a miserable time. Stocks plunged and took years to recover. Unemployment surged. Millions of jobs were destroyed.
Now if you could avoid living through a repeat of that scenario, would you? A lot of people would. It’s only logical. Pain is a signal of danger and when you avoid danger, you tend to live longer. There’s a reason “flight” is an intrinsic response.
But investors do not live in a state of nature. We live in the market. And we are by nature ambitious. We don’t settle for what we’re given. We aren’t passive observers reacting to developments.
We call our own shots. And the other major intrinsic response to danger is to “fight.” As long as you can handle a year or so of market turmoil, it’s actually better for investors to stay in the game and fight it out.
Don’t take my word for it. Over the past year, the S&P 500 has soared 22%. That’s double what it usually provides in a typical year. It’s been an extremely good year for investors who fought it out.
After all, there’s no return without risk. At the lowest end of the risk scale, you might be so terrified of danger you spend all your cash (risky, the government might default) on canned food, ammunition and gold.
That’s your choice. The food goes bad or gets eaten. The bullets get used up. The gold just sits there.
In less apocalyptic scenarios, you keep the dollars but leave them in the bank where they’re safe, or bury them in the backyard if you don’t trust banks. That’s your choice. When you dig them up, inflation makes them a little smaller. You’ve lost ground.
Admittedly, you could have lost more ground in the stock market, but you’ll never know. The thing about the stock market is that throughout history, it’s done well in the long term. Ride out the waves and you reach the other side to be rewarded.
Sometimes the rewards are substantial, especially when a lot of people in the market are running in the other direction. That’s what happened in the past year. When other investors see nothing but pain ahead, the ambitious and courageous rush in to take over their positions and move forward.
You need the courage of your convictions. This year, perversely, the areas where the gloom is lifting fastest are the ones that were most depressed. I’m talking about the banks. Go ahead and buy the banks. A few may fail like they did last year.
But the ones that survive are stronger than they have been in over a decade. Remember, positive interest rates are good for lenders. Banks make money lending money.
The rest of the market looks like a wash right now from a strategic perspective. But the banks are a different story. You don’t need to rush in, but you definitely shouldn’t be running to the exit at this stage.