Stocks took a big step back on Thursday because traders were having flashbacks to the summer of 2022, when Fed Chair Jay Powell talked tough about how he was willing to crash the economy in order to kill inflation. I told Fox that night that that dog had stopped barking . . . Powell had turned into a pussycat.
And sure enough, Friday morning the man stood up at Jackson Hole and purred eight magic words: “the time has come for policy to adjust.” Interest rates have peaked. Financing terms will only get easier from here, depending on how fast and how far inflation recedes.
Let that sink in. Things got as bad as they’re going to get on the rate front. We survived them. Corporate earnings actually rose to the challenge with the strongest year-over-year growth rates seen since the initial phases of the pandemic. Remember then? It was when Powell and company slashed rates to zero.
The Fed is unlikely to relax to that extent this time around, but it’s clear that they won’t tolerate elevated rates one day longer than absolutely necessary. The only question is whether they waited too long. I said they did. (VIDEO)
We’re probably in a “stealth” recession now: a slowdown too mild for the NBER to enshrine it officially in economic history. Think back to early 2022, when GDP dipped 0.65% across two quarters. Technically a “recession.” Nobody made a big deal over it.
And we survived. Stocks rebounded to record levels. Our own GameChangers are sitting on record profit . . . 64% on average, thanks to the three biggest wins in that portfolio’s 14-year history. We’re hitting home runs and the gains keep multiplying.
Then there’s my IPO Edge. Up 68% as we let huge winners ride as long as they can. Young stocks, vulnerable to the market’s moods. They’re not behaving like they would in a severe recession.
Again, I think the slowdown started months ago. And it will be mild enough that the market won’t even flinch.
Here’s how the works: Every 0.25% cut gives the S&P 500 space to climb about 3 percentage points. I think the cuts will continue until next summer.
That’s enough to keep the market moving up at “normal” speed. The only question is how much of that upside has already been priced in. But that’s not our problem. Our companies are growing fast enough to keep up.
Is it any wonder the GameChangers gained ground this earnings season while the Magnificent 7 fell? Which group of stocks would YOU rather focus on?
But you don’t have to join my trading group. Just get in there and participate. This is what a boom feels like. And the Fed is going to make it even better.