Tesla’s Cybertruck — the brutalist “futuristic” electric pickup that’s captured the scientific and political imaginations of many and undergone line-wide safety recalls four times in the handful of months it’s been available — has been shrouded in mystery since its limited release late last year. While the company has remained tight-lipped about specific sales figures, a recent recall notice from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has inadvertently shed light on just how many Cybertrucks are now on the road or in transit to eager customers.

In a letter dated June 24th, Tesla confirmed it would be issuing a recall for a defective front wiper on the Cybertruck. The massive single wiper, touted as the largest ever used for a passenger vehicle, can fail due to “excessive electrical current.” A separate recall was also issued for a trim panel in the truck’s bed.

Buried within this notice was a crucial detail: the number of vehicles affected by the recall. This figure, 11,688 trucks, effectively equates to the number of Cybertrucks sold to date, including those currently in use and those on their way to buyers.

This revelation is significant because Tesla does not typically break out Cybertruck sales in its quarterly delivery reports. Until now, getting an accurate read on early sales figures for this highly anticipated vehicle has been a challenge.

Tesla began low-volume production of the Cybertruck at its Giga Austin factory in late November of last year. A previous recall notice indicated that 1,163 vehicles were delivered in December. This leaves approximately 10,525 Cybertrucks produced and delivered in 2024, giving Tesla an estimated average monthly delivery rate of 1,754 trucks as of late June.

Extrapolating this data, Tesla could potentially deliver around 23,500 Cybertrucks by the end of the year. This figure aligns with CEO Elon Musk’s ambitious production goals. At the company’s annual shareholder meeting, Musk revealed that Tesla had achieved a production rate of 1,300 Cybertrucks per week, with a target of 2,500 vehicles per week by the end of 2024.

At a production rate of 2,500 Cybertrucks per week, Tesla could theoretically manufacture 125,000 vehicles annually (accounting for two weeks of factory downtime). This represents half of the company’s estimated full-volume production capacity of 250,000 units.

The bigger question looming over Tesla is whether there are enough buyers to absorb such a high volume of Cybertrucks. Musk has previously claimed that demand for the truck is “off the hook,” and at the shareholder meeting, he hinted at the possibility of more affordable, non-Foundation series Cybertrucks being introduced.

Currently, the Foundation Series starts at $102,235. However, cheaper trims like the Cyberbeast ($96,390) and All-Wheel Drive ($76,390) could be on the horizon, potentially broadening the appeal of the Cybertruck.

Despite Musk’s optimism, the overall demand picture for electric vehicles, even for popular Tesla models like the Model Y SUV, remains uncertain. At the shareholder meeting, Musk acknowledged that near-term demand and sales would likely continue to face challenges as the industry undergoes a transitionary period.

Meanwhile, Musk’s public stances and behavior naturally lead to political implications of the purchase and ownership of the issue-prone vehicle. In the heightened climate leading up to the November Presidential election, this identification of the truck, with Musk as the face of the company, could possibly result in continued volatility for both the vehicle’s value and Tesla’s mystique.

The Road Ahead for Tesla

Tesla is expected to release its second-quarter delivery numbers early next week. The Street is forecasting around 441,000 deliveries for the quarter, according to Bloomberg consensus. While this would be higher than the 386,800 deliveries in Q1, it would still fall short of the 466,100 deliveries from a year ago.

As Tesla ramps up production and introduces more affordable trims, the Cybertruck’s true market potential will become clearer. While the vehicle’s unconventional design and features have generated both excitement and skepticism, its early sales figures suggest there is significant interest in this electric pickup truck.

The coming months will be crucial for Tesla as it navigates the complexities of the EV market, strives to meet its ambitious production goals, and works to solidify the Cybertruck’s place in the competitive landscape of electric vehicles.