Despite a few hot inflation prints earlier this month, the investors who really care about interest rates aren’t worried enough to vote with their wallets. There’s zero real money in the futures market riding on any more tightening moves from the Fed. Zero . . . which cuts through a lot of the doomsday chatter.
If anything, the odds of a significant number of rate CUTS this year remain high. Rate futures traders think we’ll see 2-4 loosening moves, enough to take overnight rates down 0.5% to a full percentage point. That’s real relief. It’s enough to take rates down to where they were a year ago or even lower.
The world did not end a year ago. Everyone knows that level of monetary austerity is survivable. Sustainable. It might sting to pay that much interest, but we’ve seen the economy has been able to bear it.
And if the absolute level of interest isn’t toxic in itself, then the only thing to fear is time . . . rates are likely to start going down before the end of the summer, but have they stayed too high for too long for borrowers to handle?
I think the answer is no. For one thing, even borrowers who got into debt at the highest rates (last summer) will rush to refinance the minute the Fed relaxes. The more ground the Fed gives up, the more leeway they’ll have to refinance.
The relief spreads. Things feel better. All we need for that to happen is for inflation to show us real signs of improvement. The PCE next week will set the tone. If it’s good, the futures market has the right idea and there’s no need to be afraid.
It only gets complicated if the numbers come in as hot as the CPI and PPI did. In that scenario, rate relief will be elusive.
But in the past, the economy has grown fast enough to power through higher borrowing costs. It evidently doesn’t take much. GDP is on track to expand about 2.5% in the current quarter. That’s not exactly a crash.
Growth is the engine that keeps the economy moving forward. It’s the gas pedal. Rates are the brake.
As long as the gas is pushing the car forward faster than the brake is slowing it down, the economy is in a good place for investors. It’s that simple. Whether the Fed gets its foot off the brake or not, the gas is flowing.