We’re still about a month out from when NVIDIA (NVDA) releases its official 4Q results, but expectations here are strong enough to move the entire market weeks in advance. All you need to do is the math.

Consider: NVDA is on track to book QUINTUPLE the profit than it did in late 2022. That number reflects roughly DOUBLE the sales we saw a year ago.

On that basis, we’re looking at a company that has managed to raise the bottom line about 1000% above where it was before the pandemic . . . or maybe 150% from the 2021 bubble days. Remember those days? Back then, NVDA was considered a maker of crypto mining equipment.

These numbers are real. And the stock’s historical performance lines up. Back in 2019, before the pandemic, this was a $50 stock. In the bubble, this was a $300 stock. Earnings growth supports price appreciation.

But the real story here is that NVDA is growing so fast that this single company’s performance balances weakness elsewhere in the market. Wall Street suspects the S&P 500 will show a net 1% earnings decline when this season is over . . . not great, but a lot better than the more serious deterioration we shouldered last year.

Subtract NVDA from the calculations and that earnings decline reaccelerates to about 3% . . . a significant step down from what we got in 3Q, practically a relapse. And so you see how much the market as a whole is depending on AI buzz turning into real dollars, at least for this company.

I think it’s happening. But we’ll know for sure in a month whether to cheer or keep holding our breath.