Instacart (CART) just had an IPO… shares opened at $30, kicked up to $42, then deflated back to just over $30 by week’s end. Where does it go from here? And do I want to own it here?

Gazing over the headlines about the listing, we see something bigger than the roller coaster excitement of watching a stock gain and lose… we see a pattern emerging about grocery delivery. From what we can tell, grocery delivery is undergoing a metamorphosis, and the value may be in who has the stamina to keep up.

Tall claims require tall evidence, so here: starting next year, Uber will accept food stamps and healthcare benefits for grocery delivery. The metamorphosis we see happening can be thought of almost like the virtualization of grocery stores. So, Instacart is one piece in a larger picture…. one where we’ll get to see if they have the stamina to meet up to their potential. The game now is to do “keeping up” better, faster, and first.

What we see in Instacart’s story is evidence of rapid change in an industry that doesn’t seem old enough for it. We see Instacart leaning into advertising, and we think we should watch and learn. If you close your eyes and imagine yourself walking into your grocery store, bet you can picture vivid brand colors and packaging. That level of character is the direction we see things going for grocery delivery.

What this points to is future momentum driven by grocery delivery apps and advertisers working in tandem. On grocery ordering apps, brands pay for space, just like they do in a brick-and-mortar store. That means partnerships, brand competition for prime eyeball real estate, and a market where advertisers are forced to turbo-charge their refresh rate for retention. It’s a lot of pressure, but diamonds are made when coal is pressed.

One of the world’s larges retailers is evolving their grocery delivery service to help them keep the heat turned up high on their foes. Walmart’s on-demand delivery already lets customers get same-day orders. Now, they’ll be able to get orders later at night too… right when folks are tired, hungry, and ready for instant gratification. As is, they’ve already captured nearly 36% of all Q2 online grocery sales in the U.S.

See… Walmart isn’t just competing with names we know well, they’re competing with names we’re growing to know. Folks like Gopuff… trendy, fast, modern “convenience” stores that come to you instead of you going to them. Imagine the corner gas station in your neighborhood, now morph that into small distribution centers with fun, constantly changing items, and that’s Go Puff.

In terms of ad evolution, smart minds in corporate R&D have figured out that the half-hour window between when folks hit “submit” and when their doorbell rings is a sweet spot, where they exist in a state of golden marketing suspension… perfectly primed to make another impulse purchase. They’re figuring out that folks don’t mind these ads at all, since having them placed after the transaction makes them feel respected.

To help place these audience respecting ads, companies like Rokt, which provides e-commerce services, are putting machine learning to work presenting offers to shoppers that are relevant to them. Gopuff, for instance, uses Rokt’s product to serve ads to customers after checkout based on things like location and personal demographics.

We’re seeing an uptick in what we like to think of as “cherry on top” offerings… as in, where companies are making sure they are offering little perks that make being a part of their group more special than any other group. We can see this play out in something Walmart is doing in their digital recipe hub, where they base customer offerings on recipes instead of individual foods.

Essentially, you can get that bundle of food delivered by Walmart, and their recipe hub teaches you how to prepare what you’ve purchased to perfection. Walmart is making sure there’s no need for the customer to ever depart their ecosystem… it’s smart. The space is highly competitive, and is on track to jump from $11.5 billion last year to $34.8 billion by 2026… get the gloves, it’s time to compete.

And compete we will… we’ll see things like greater use of targeted advertising. Say you order a toothbrush, now they can serve you ads for floss. Data will be king, because… of course. This means measuring ad campaigns and making tweaks in real time. This data also means that personalization can be taken to the next level, which folks seem to love. Come back next week, we’ll have more from the IPO space.