Retail Stock Rebounds Sharply

Party City (PRTY) is up more than 10% today after reporting first-quarter earnings.

Although earnings per share (EPS) of $0.01 versus $0.07 was only in line with expectations, it was good enough to lift the stock, as much worse results had been expected by shorts, who have knocked the stock down sharply the past two months. Total revenues, up 1%, were also in line with expectations.

It’s important to note that PRTY kept in place its EPS guidance for the year of $1.62 to $1.75 a share. The company also announced it signed an agreement for a new source of helium beginning in the third quarter which it said should substantially eliminate the shortages it has been facing. PRTY is also continuing with its aggressive plans to reduce debt, maintaining its goal to lower its debt-to-EBITDA ratio to 4:1 by the end of the year. That implies the company will lower its net debt, currently at $2.0 billion, to $1.7 billion.

The news today was a welcome relief, as it demonstrates that the disaster scenario the bears were betting on, with the stock falling lower than 4X EPS estimates at one point last week, was not realistic. While the company will have to get past the critical Halloween season before completely silencing the critics, the stock should do well from here if the company simply puts one foot in front of the other. PRTY is a buy below $8. My target is $12.