I’m sure you’ve heard all of the talk and seen all of the stories about gold recently, which has been falling like a, well, rock. So it’s not surprising that I received many questions about it. Thanks to everyone who wrote in with their concerns, and I’d like to take a moment to share some thoughts on this often controversial precious metal.
When the Federal Reserve started pumping massive amounts of money into the economy after the 2008 crisis, gold went on a tear as many investors feared the money pump would spark inflation. Gold doubled between 2009 and 2011, jumping from $900 to $1800. It is now around $1400, so a little more than 20% off its all-time highs, which the technicians will tell you puts it “officially” in a bear market.
The recent drop has been especially sharp. The reasons behind the plunge are varied: concerns that Cyprus would sell its store of gold; heavily leveraged hedge funds forcing investors to exit gold mining stocks; slowing global growth lowering commodity prices in general and removing the need for gold as a hedge against inflation; and a well-publicized call from Goldman Sachs to short gold.
I’m getting a lot of questions from folks about whether now is the time to jump in and buy gold, especially with the central banks around the world planning to pump money into the global economy. It’s the right question to ask, but my answer is no, now is not the time to buy gold.
I say that for two main reasons. First, inflation may be on the horizon, but it has kept its distance for more than four years of quantitative easing, and it does not appear to be imminent even now. Second, gold was in a bubble, and while that bubble is bursting, I don’t think it’s completely popped yet. There is an awful lot of unwinding that needs to be done, and that process is still unfolding. For example, hedge fund billionaire John Paulson is a well-known “gold bug,” and 85% of his $9.5 billion hedge funds are in gold-backed products. 85%! Mr. Paulson has lost $1 billion in the unexpected collapse, but he stands by the metal.
So I would not buy gold right, even after the sharp pullback. I believe this trade is done for now. That’s not to say gold is going to completely collapse from here. Gold is still valuable for a reason. It is sought after in industry, fashion, and as a precious metal currency hedge. I just think the fundamental and technical headwinds are too strong right now, and this remains a very risky trade.
Gold ran up on popularity, and now we’re seeing the opposite happen. My advice is to let the big boys fight it out and stay on the sidelines for now.